Strong performance in software, storage, enterprise network and mobile device markets offset weaker trends
IDC announced research that shows Worldwide IT spending remains on course to grow 6% this year in constant currency, only slightly down on last year’s pace of 7% growth, in spite of continuing macroeconomic uncertainty. Strong performance in software, storage, enterprise network and mobile device markets has offset weaker trends in PCs, servers, peripherals and telecom provider equipment. However, the strength of the US dollar in the first half of 2012 means that IT spending in dollar terms is on course for growth of just 4% this year, a significant downturn for US-based tech vendors from the US dollar growth rate of 10.5% in 2011. Including telecom services, total ICT spending will increase by 5% this year in constant currency to $3.6 trillion (growth of 2.5% in US dollars).
“In spite of economic uncertainty, which continues to inhibit enterprise investment in some tech segments, the continuing demand for tablets, smartphones, storage capacity and network -performance improvements actually outperformed expectations in the first half of the year,” said Stephen Minton, Vice President in IDC’s Global Technology and Industry Research Organisation. “Software spending has been robust, even in regions where economic trends have been weakest, as businesses turn to software tools and applications as a means of implementing cost-reduction strategies.”
Key trends in the Worldwide IT market so far in 2012 include:
- US IT spending remains on course for weaker performance than 2011 with growth of 5.9% (down from 8.5% last year); the launch of Windows 8 in Q4 should help to drive a meaningful recovery in the PC market next year.
- While Western Europe remains weak overall due to the slow economy, software growth in Northern Europe was robust, and mobile device shipments (smartphones and tablets) have remained on course; excluding mobile devices, however, Europe is on course for just 1% growth in constant currency (a -4.5% decline in US dollars)
- The recovery in Japan has lost some momentum, with IT growth in constant currency now on course for an increase of just 2% this year before flat lining again in 2013
- Growth in emerging markets is still relatively strong,; in China, where the manufacturing sector has been impacted by slowing exports to Europe, IT spending is now on course for 14% growth this year in constant currency (down from 25% growth in 2011), with PC spending on course for growth of just 7% after a weaker-than-expected first half (down from 19% growth in 2011)
- Strong growth is still expected in India (14%), Brazil (14%), Russia (11%) and South Africa (8%)
- Overall Worldwide IT spending is now expected to grow by 6% in 2013 to $2.1 trillion (ICT spending including telecom services will increase by 5% next year to $3.8 trillion)
“While this is a tough year for many IT vendors, the overall performance of the industry has been healthier than many expected in the first half of this year,” said Minton. “In particular, the strength of software spending seems to prove that many enterprises have unlocked significant productivity and efficiency improvements. If the economy avoids downside scenarios in the second half of the year, a PC upgrade cycle in 2013 should help to maintain this momentum.”
IDC's Worldwide Black Book provides forecasts for IT spending in 54 countries around the world. IT spending forecasts focus on 25 individual market segments across hardware, software, IT services, and telecom services for individual countries in all regions including North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia/Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The Worldwide Black Book Query Tool presents all data in the following exchange rate views: U.S. dollars in constant currency, annual and year-to-date exchange rates, and local currency. Historical data is presented alongside 5-year forecasts, updated quarterly in line with quarterly market performance and macroeconomic indicators.
For additional information about this research, or to arrange a one-on-one briefing with Stephen Minton, please contact Sarah Murray at 781-378-2674 or sarah@attunecommunications.com.To request information on custom data cuts or subscription services, contact insights@idc.com.
