Latest Chip Sales Predictions (As Of July 2009) Per Cowan LRA Forecast Model

Latest Chip Sales Predictions (As Of July 2009) Per Cowan LRA Forecast Model

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Description: A forecasting model has been developed to determine future global chip sales. The Cowan LRA Model is a mathematically based model that features statistical analysis of the past 25 years of historical, monthly chip sales that are collected and published by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization. The model is a dynamic, mathematically pure view of near-term worldwide chip sales looking out over the next six quarters.

This paper presents latest forecast results for July 2009. .

 
Author: Mike Cowan (Fellow) | Visits: 1690 | Page Views: 1707
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Contents:
THE COWAN LRA MODEL's MONTHLY GLOBAL S/C SALES FORECAST UPDATE
(BASED ON JULY 2009's ACTUAL GLOBAL S/C SALES AS PUBLISHED BY THE WSTS ON 9-01-09)

Mike Cowan (9-03-09) E-mail : mikedcowan(at)verizon.net Telephone #: 845-297-8692
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UPDATED COWAN LRA MODEL � JULY 2009 FORECAST RESULTS
PRESENTATION CONTENT
COWAN LRA MODEL � INTRO OVERVIEW LATEST QUARTERLY SALES & YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH FORECAST NOs. NEAR-TERM QUARTERLY GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND GRAPHIC BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF COWAN LRA MODEL SALES & SALES GRWTH FRCSTS SLIDES #3, #4, #5 SLIDE #6 SLIDE #7 SLIDE #8

BY-MONTH 2009 SALES GROWTH FRCST VS. ACTUAL 2009 YTD CUM SALES GROWTH - GRAPHIC SLIDES #9, #10 THE COWAN LRA MODEL's MOMENTUM INDICATOR, MI, - AN OVERVIEW LAST 15 MONTHS OF COWAN LRA MODEL's MOMENTUM INDICATOR � GRAPHIC LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF MONTHLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR � GRAPHIC HISTORICAL BY-YEAR S/C SALES AND GROWTH TRENDS � GRAPHICS SLIDE #11 SLIDE #12 SLIDE #13 SLIDES #14 TO #18

VARIOUS S/C MKT ANALYSTS' 2009 Y-O-Y SALES GROWTH FORECASTS�TABLE, GRAPHICS SLIDES #19a, #19b, #20 ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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SLIDE #21

2

THE COWAN LRA MODEL (FOR FORECASTING GLOBAL S/C SALES) � "DIVINING" THE FUTURE FROM THE PAST
A semiconductor sales forecasting model, called the Cowan LRA Model, has been developed by the author to facilitate the determination of future global sales of the semiconductor industry. The Cowan LRA (Linear Regression Analysis) Model, which forecasts near-term global semiconductor sales, is a mathematically based model that exploits statistical analysis carried out on the past 25 years of historical global semiconductor sales (in particular, monthly actual sales numbers) that are gathered and published by the WSTS, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, organization. It is a dynamic (that is, updated each month), mathematically-pure view of near-term worldwide semiconductor sales estimates looking forward over the next six quarters. Since the model is a purely mathematical forecasting approach, it is therefore devoid of any economic assumptions or emotional biases; that is, the model's statistical analysis approach "captures the historical experience" of the industry as "reflected" in its actual monthly sales numbers covering the past 25 years in order to predict the future.
3
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THE COWAN LRA MODEL (FOR FORECASTING GLOBAL S/C SALES) � "DIVINING" THE FUTURE FROM THE PAST, Cont'd
The model, as the name LRA implies, features linear regression analysis carried out on the "appropriately transformed" actual monthly sales numbers published by the WSTS. The mathematical transformation of the monthly sales data "renders" the global semiconductor sales data highly linear and, therefore, very amenable to linear regression statistical analysis techniques � more on this later in the accompanying slides. The resulting numerical transformation of the past 25 years of monthly, actual sales numbers -- from 1984 to 2008, inclusively -- that is invoked is not a complicated mathematical expression but very straight forward and "makes sense physically" thereby yielding extremely high linear regression correlation coefficients of 0.97 and greater. In exercising the model each month, a total of six distinct sets of linear regression parameters (that is, m and b - of the format y = mx + b) are employed in order to calculate the resulting global semiconductor sales forecast estimates for each of the next six quarters that comprise the model's forecast horizon, namely 3Q09, 4Q09, 1Q10, 2Q10, 3Q10 and 4Q10, respectively 4
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THE COWAN LRA MODEL (FOR FORECASTING GLOBAL S/C SALES) � "DIVINING" THE FUTURE FROM THE PAST, Cont'd
It should be emphasized that each month's actual global sales number published by the WSTS is a "lagging indicator" since it is released a full month after the fact. The Cowan LRA Model, however, "turns" this lagging monthly sales number into a "leading indicator" by virtue of its short-term forecasting capability looking out over the next six quarters. This is the "beauty" of the model and, therefore, makes it dynamic in the sense that it can be run each month utilizing the most recent actual global S/C sales number published by the WSTS and thus can rigorously "track" the near-term sales forecast outlook of the global semiconductor industry on an almost real-time basis. Consequently, the model's monthly sales forecast does not "sit still" but "evolves" with each month's latest sales result since conditions change rapidly and unexpectedly in the semiconductor industry, and market forecasters are hard pressed to keep up with these changes. How can industry management be sure that a forecast issued two, three, or more months ago is still valid, relevant to what's happening in today's global semiconductor market?
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LATEST QRTRLY SALES & YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH FORECAST ESTIMATES
1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q 2008, 1Q, 2Q 2009 ACTUALS (SOURCE: WSTS); 3Q, 4Q 2009 + 1Q, 2Q And 3Q 2010 ESTIMATES (SOURCE: COWAN LRA MODEL)

NOTE � MODEL EXTENDED IN ORDER TO ADD 4Q10 AND THUS 2010 SALES FORECAST NOs.
JU L Y09
T ime Period 1Q 08 2Q 08 1H 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 2H 08 2008 1Q 09 2Q 09 1H 09 3Q 09 E st 4Q 09 E st 2H 09 E st Sales ($B) 62.806 64.702 127.508 68.876 52.218 121.094 248.603 44.219 51.707 95.927 56.685 52.788 109.473 Y r-O -Y r S ale s Growth 2.8% 8.0% 5.4% 1.6% -21.9% -10.1% -2.8% -29.6% -20.1% -24.8% -17.7% 1.1% -9.6% Q tr-O -Q tr S ale s Growth -6.0% 3.0% --6.5% -24.2% -----15.5% 16.9% --9.6% -6.9% -----4.6% 2.3% --23.5% -10.9% ----S e q ue n tial S ale s Growth -----5.3% -----5.0% -------20.8% ----14.1% -------7.0% ----18.1% --P ct C hange F rom L ast M onth 's Sales Forecast Est. --------------------9.4% 3.2% 6.3%

/
|| || ||

AC T U AL s
|| || || ||

/ /
|| || || ||

2 009 E s t
1Q 10 2Q 10 1H 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 2H 10 E st E st E st E st E st E st

2 05.400
50.352 51.506 101.858 63.606 56.648 120.254

-17.4%
13.9% -0.4% 6.2% 12.2% 7.3% 9.8%

3 .3%
3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.8% 3.3% 3.5%

FRCSTs
|| || || ||

/

2 010 E s t

2 22.112

8 .1%

3 .3%

6

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QUARTERLY GLOBAL S/C SALES & Y-O-Y SALES GROWTH TREND
2008, 1Q09 & 2Q09 ACTUALS (WSTS); 3Q09 THRU 4Q10 ESTIMATES (COWAN LRA MODEL)
BY-QTR CHIP SALES AND YR-O-YR CHIP SALES GROWTH TREND - JULY 2009 UPDATE RESULTS $75.0 20.0%

$64.70B

$68.88B

13.9%

$70.0

$62.81B

12.2%
$63.61B
Y-O-Y SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

QUARTERLY SALES ($B) ======>

8.0% 1.6%
$56.69B

7.3%

10.0%

$65.0

2.8%

1.1% -0.4%
$52.79B $51.51B $52.22B

$60.0

$51.71B

$56.65B

0.0%

-10.0%

$55.0

$44.22B

$50.0

-17.7% -20.1%
QTRLY SALES ($B) Y-O-Y SALES GROWTH (%)

$50.35B

-20.0%

-21.9%
$45.0

-29.6%
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 FRCSTs ==> 4Q09 Est 2Q10 Est 4Q10 Est 2Q09 3Q09 Est 1Q10 Est 3Q10 Est

-30.0%

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF COWAN LRA MODEL SALES & SALES GROWTH FORECASTS
Time Period JAN 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

ACTUAL SALES-$B 13.151
-31.0%

JAN09 FRCST-$B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FEB09 FRCST-$B $13.446
-27.3%

MAR09 FRCST-$B N/A 16.926
-32.8%

APR09 FRCST-$B N/A N/A $13.374
-29.4%

MAY09 FRCST-$B N/A N/A N/A N/A $14.686
-27.5%

JUN09 FRCST-$B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $18.294
-28.3%

JUL09 FRCST-$B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 15.221
-26.8%

AUG09 FRCST-$B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $16.960
-22.3%

PREV/LATEST UPDATE 3-03-09 4-06-09 5-04-09 5-04-09 6-02-09 7-03-09 8-03-09 8-03-09 9-02-09

MOMENTUM INDI CATOR -30.6% +0.08% +2.0% N/A +19.6% +10.0% +5.4% N/A

FEB 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

13.456
-26.4%

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

MAR 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

17.271
-31.5%

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

1Q09 ACT
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

44.023
-29.9%

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

APR 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$15.993
-15.5%

MAY 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$16.154
-19.5%

N/A N/A N/A N/A

JUN 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$19.274
-24.5%

N/A N/A N/A

2Q09 ACT
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$51.707
-20.1%

N/A N/A

JUL 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$18.891
-9.1%

+24.1%

=============== ============ =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ============ ============= ============ ================ ============== = = = = = = = = = = =

YTD 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$114.818
-22.6%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

$131.778
-22.5%

9-02-09

=============== ============ =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ============ ============= ============ ================ ============== = = = = = = = = = = =

3Q09 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A N/A

$47.413
-17.7%

$47.460
-31.1%

$47.944
-30.4%

$50.180
-27.1%

$51.121
-25.8%

$51.813
-24.8%

$56.685
-17.7%

9-02-09 9-02-09 9-02-09

4Q09 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$46.953
1.1%

$46.949
-10.1%

$47.452
-9.1%

$49.583
-5.0%

$50.488
-3.3%

$51.174
-2.0%

$52.788
1.1%

2H09 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$94.366
-22.1%

$94.408
-22.0%

$95.396
-21.2%

$99.762
-17.6%

$101.609
-16.1%

$102.987
-15.0%

$109.473
-9.6%

= = =============== ============ =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ============ ============= ============ ================ ============== = = = = = = = = =

2009 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A

$181.986 -26.8% $48.499
11.5%

$182.084 -26.8% $47.573
9.2%

$183.988 -26.0% $45.277
2.8%

$192.504 -22.6% $47.271
7.2%

$196.176 -21.1% $48.145
9.1%

$198.914 -20.0% $48.825
10.4%

$205.400 -17.4% $50.352
13.9%

9-02-09

= = =============== ============ =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ============ ============= ============ ================ ============== = = = = = = = = =

1Q10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

9-02-09 9-02-09 9-02-09 9-02-09 9-02-09

2Q10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

$50.989
14.4%

$53.355
9.7%

$54.506
8.0%

$49.949
-3.4%

$51.506
-0.4%

1H10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$96.267
8.7%

$100.626
8.5%

$102.651
7.0%

$98.774
3.0%

$101.858
6.2%

3Q10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

$61.298
18.3%

$63.606
12.2%

4Q10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$54.853
7.2%

$56.648
7.3%

=============== ============ =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ============ ============= ============ ================ ============== = = = = = = = = = = =

2010 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

$214.925 8.0%

$222.112 8.1%

9-02-09

=============== ============ =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ============ ============= ============ ================ ============== = = = = = = = = = = =

SOURCEs: WSTS (Actuals) and COWAN LRA MODEL (Forecasts) NOTES: ALL ITALICIZED NUMBERS ARE FORECASTS: N / A => Not Applicable

8

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BY-MONTH COWAN LRA MODEL's 2009 SALES GROWTH FORECAST VERSUS BY-MONTH ACTUAL 2009 YTD CUM SALES GROWTH
BY -M ONTH EVOLUTION OF FORECASTED 2009 S/C SALES GROWTH - PER COWAN LRA M ODEL

SALES GROWTH FORECAST (%) ======>

-15.0%

-20.0%

-17.4%

-17.5% -20.0%

-22.6%

-21.1%

COWAN LRA MODEL's FORECAST BY MONTH ACTUAL MONTHLY 2009 CUM YTD SALES GROWTH

-26.0%

-26.8%

-26.8%

.2 %

-2 9. 9%

-27.5% -30.0%

.2 %

-2 6

-25.0%

.5 %

-2 5

-3

1. 2% -2 9

MONTHLY 2009 SALES GROWTH FRCST

-2 4

.8 %

-22.5%

-2

2. 6%

ACTUAL 2009 Y TD CUM SALES GROWTH (2008=>09)

09

09

09

09

09

9

9

09

09

r0

ay

t0

l0

ar

Au g

Ju n

ct

n

09 No v De

b

Ju

Se p

Fe

Ap

Ja

TIME PERIOD OF MONTHLY OR CUM YTD SALES GROWTH ======>
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M

M

O

c

09

9

9

BY-MONTH COWAN LRA MODEL's 2009 CHIP SALES FORECAST VERSUS BY-MONTH ACTUAL 2009 YTD CUM SALES
BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF FORECASTED 2009 S/C CHIP SALES - PER COWAN LRA MODEL

$250.000

00 .4 05 $2 14 .9 98 $1 76 .1 96 $1 04 .5 92 $1 88 .9 83 $1 84 .0 82 6 $1 .98

$1

SALES FORECAST ($B) ======>

$200.000

COWAN LRA MODEL's SALES FORECAST BY MONTH

$150.000

.1 5 $2 1 6. 62 3 $4 4. 02 3 $6 0. 10 4 $7 6. 27 4 $9 5. 92 7 $1 14 .8 18

81
$100.000 $50.000 $0.000

ACTUAL MONTHLY 2009 CUM YTD SALES

$1 3

MONTHLY 2009SALES FORECAST

ACTUAL 2009 YTD CUM SALES

Se pt 09

O ct 09

09

09

09

ar 09

Ju l0 9

09

09

09

A pr

Ja n

ay

n

ug

09 ov N D

Fe b

Ju

M

M

TIME PERIOD OF MONTHLY OR CUM YTD SALES ======>

A

ec

09

10
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THE COWAN LRA MODEL �
MOMENTUM INDICATOR, MI
July 2009's actual S/C sales result ($18.891B) came in much higher than the model's last month's July09 sales forecast estimate (of $15.221B) representing a plus 24.1 percent delta comparing July09's actual sales number to the forecast estimate from last month. This percent delta represents the Cowan LRA Model's MI (see next two slides for this indicator's short-term and long-term historical trends, respectively).

The MI is defined as the percent difference between the actual sales for
a given month -- in this case July's just published actual global sales of $18.891 B and the forecasted sales estimate for July, that is, $15.221B which was calculated and published last month.

The MI can be either positive or negative and is a measure of the
percent deviation of the actual monthly sales number from its previous month's prediction derived from the model's linear regression analysis of the past 25 years of historical monthly global "sales experience."
11
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LAST 15 MONTHS TREND OF THE COWAN LRA MODEL's MOMENTUM INDICATOR, MI
(MAY 2008 => JULY 2009)
MONTHLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR TREND FOR PAST 15 MONTHS (MAY 2008 THROUGH July 2009)

$ 2 7 .1 9

G L O B A L S /C S A L E S = > A C T U A L , F O R E C A S T E S T - $ B = == = == >

$ 2 5 .5 2

$ 2 2 .0 2

$ 2 1 .8 7

$ 2 1 .9 6

$ 2 2 .8 6

$27.50 $25.00 $22.50 $20.00

16.0%

$ 2 0 .0 5

$ 2 0 .5 3

$ 2 0 .7 7

10.0%
$ 1 8 .9 5 $ 1 6 .9 3 $ 1 8 .2 9

12.0%

$ 1 9 .3 1

$ 1 6 .9 6

$ 1 5 .8 8

$ 1 5 .9 9

$ 1 6 .1 5

$ 1 5 .2 2

(B a r G r a p h s )

$ 1 4 .6 9

0.1%
$ 1 3 .4 5
$ 1 3 .4 6 $ 1 3 .1 5

$ 1 7 .2 7

2.0%
$ 1 3 .3 7

$ 1 6 .9 6

2.1% 3.2% 3.6%

$ 1 8 .8 9

5.4%

$ 1 9 .2 7

8.0% 4.0% 0.0% -4.0% -8.0% -12.0%

P E R C E N T D E L T A - A C T U A L v s E S T (% ) = = = = = = >

$30.00

$ 2 6 .2 9

$ 2 4 .7 2

19.6%
$ 2 4 .3 0

24.1%

24.0% 20.0%

$17.50 $15.00 $12.50 $10.00 $7.50 $5.00 $2.50 $0.00 MAY 08 JUN 08 JUL 08

-0.7%

-3.3% -12.1%

-16.0%

MOMENTUM INDICATOR - RHS ==>

-20.0% -24.0%

-25.8% -30.6% -34.6%
SEPT 08 AUG 08 Monthly Actual - $B OCT 08 NOV 08 DEC 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09

-28.0% -32.0% -36.0%

NOTE - THE MI SPIKED FROM LAST MONTH'S VALUE THEREBY REACHING A RECORD HIGH NUMBER FOR THIS MONTH. THIS IS VERY POSITIVE NEWS: AN INDICATION OF A STRONG CONTINUATION IN THE GLOBAL S/C SALES GROWTH RECOVERY OVER THE NEAR TERM.

Next Mnth's Frcst Est.-$B

% Delta => Act. VS Frcst Est. (Prev Mnth)

(L in e G r a p h )

12
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LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF MONTHLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - FROM Feb 2002 To July 2009
M O N T H L Y "M O M EN TU M " IN D IC A TO R (% ) ======>
24.0% 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0% -21.0% -24.0% -27.0% -30.0% -33.0% -36.0%
Ja n 02 M ar 02 M ay 02 Ju l 02 S ep t 02 Nov 02 Ja n 03 M ar 03 M ay 03 Ju l 03 S ep t 03 Nov 03 Ja n 04 M ar 04 M ay 04 Ju l 04 S ep t 04 Nov 04 Ja n 05 M ar 05 M ay 05 Ju l 05 S ep t 05 Nov 05 JAN 06 M A R 06 M AY 06 JU L 0 6 S E P T 06 N O V 06 Ja n 07 M ar 07 M ay 07 Ju l 07 S ep t 07 Nov 07 JAN 08 M A R 08 M AY 08 JU L 0 8 S E P T 08 N O V 08 Ja n 09 M ar 09 M ay 09 Ju l 09

NOTE SHARP FALL OFF IN MI WITH EVEN MORE DRAMATIC RECOVERY!

24.0% 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0%

Monthly "Momentum" Indicator (%) "Zero Momentum" Line 3MMA Trend

-6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0% -21.0% -24.0%

Momentum Indicator => Pct Delta Between Month's Est and Actual [= (Actual - Est) / Est]
Source: Cowan LRA Model (For Forecas ting Global Se miconductor Sale s)

-27.0% -30.0% -33.0% -36.0%

13
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M O N T H L Y "M O M EN TU M " IN D IC A TO R (% ) ======>

HISTORICAL BY-YEAR S/C SALES AND Y-O-Y GROWTH TRENDS � 1984 TO 2010 EST.
BY-YEAR GLOBAL S/C SALES AND Y-O-Y SALES GROWTH TREND (1984=>2010 Est.)

$300

$227.5B $247.7B $255.6B $248.6B

41.7%

40.0%

38.3%

36.8%

$275
YEARLY S/C SALES ($B) ======>

$198.9B $214.9B

29.1% 31.8%

$225 $200 $175 $150 $125

22.7% 23.4%

28.0%

$250

18.9%

20.0%

8.4% 3.6% 8.1% 9.6%

6.8% 8.9% 3.2% -2.8%

10.0%

-17.2%

1.3%

0.0%

$100 $75 $50 $25 $0

-10.0%

YEARLY GLOBAL S/C SALES ($B)

-32.0%

-20.0%

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

-30.0%

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & the COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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20 0 20 9 E 10 st Es . t.

19 8 19 4 8 19 5 8 19 6 8 19 7 8 19 8 8 19 9 9 19 0 9 19 1 9 19 2 9 19 3 9 19 4 9 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 7 9 19 8 9 20 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 20 2 0 20 3 0 20 4 0 20 5 0 20 6 0 20 7 08

YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

30.0%

18.3%

-8.6% 4.0% -8.4%

-17.4%

8.1%

14

HISTORICAL 1Q GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR GROWTH TREND � 1Q84 THRU 1Q10 EST.
BY-QTR (1Q) GLOBAL S/C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (1Q84=>1Q10 Est.)

BY-YEAR QUARTERLY (1Q) SALES ($B) ======>

$60

42.7%

43.3%

40.0%

$50

22.3%

22.0%

30.9%

30.0%

15.6%

15.8%

$40

21.0%

20.0%

1.5% -0.0%

10.0%

-4.9%

2.5%

-4.4%

$30

0.0%

$20

-10.0%

Updated - 9-02-09

-29.6%

$10

-25.5%

-20.0%

$0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 Est. 2010 Est. 1984 1985

-30.0%

YRLY 1Q GLOBAL S/C SALES ($B)

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

34.8%

14.6%

32.4%

-9.4% -4.7% 6.9%

12.7% 7.3% 3.4% 2.8%

13.9%

15

HISTORICAL 2Q GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR GROWTH TREND � 2Q84 THRU 2Q10 EST.
BY-QTR (2Q) GLOBAL S/C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (2Q84=>2Q10 Est.)

BY-YEAR QUARTERLY (2Q) SALES ($B) ======>

50.0% $60

46.7%

49.0%

$50

30.0%

20.0%

$40

11.3% -1.9% 11.3% 5.0%

-1.6% 11.9%

10.1% 0.9% 8.0%

$30

8.0%

-0.4%

10.0%

-12.0%

-20.1%

$20

-17.4%

-13.8%

0.7%

0.0%

-10.0%

Updated - 9-02-09

-31.1%

$10

-20.0%

-30.0%
2007 2008 2009 2009 Est. 2010 Est.

$0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1996 1997 1998 1999

YEARLY 2Q GLOBAL S/C SALES ($B)

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

41.4%

23.6% 18.4%

33.1% 29.3%

13.9%

40.5%

40.0%

16

HISTORICAL 3Q GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR GROWTH TREND � 3Q84 THRU 3Q10 EST.
BY-QTR (3Q) GLOBAL S/C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (3Q84=>3Q10 Est.)

BY-YEAR QUARTERLY (3Q) SALES ($B) ======>

45.5%

$70

32.7% 28.5% 40.8%

40.0% 30.0%

39.0%

$60

18.8%

$50

20.0%

$40

5.6% 9.1% 5.9% 1.6%

12.2%

10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0%

$30

$20

Updated - 9-02-09

-44.7%

$10

-40.0%
2007 2008 2009 2009 Est. 2010 Est.

$0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1996 1997 1998 1999

YEARLY 3Q GLOBAL S/C SALES ($B)

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

36.7%

4.9% 8.5% 5.3% 13.6%

15.0%

-17.5%

-13.5%

20.6% 17.5% 28.2%

23.8%

-26.0%

-17.7%

17

HISTORICAL 4Q GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR GROWTH TREND � 4Q84 THRU 4Q10 EST.
BY-YEAR QUARTERLY (4Q) SALES ($B) ======>
BY-QTR (4Q) GLOBAL S/C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (4Q84=>4Q10 Est.) $70 40.0%

29.2% 38.0% 37.1%

31.0% 34.2% 33.9%

30.0% 21.6%

23.1% 28.0% 14.6% 8.6% 9.0% 2.5%

$60

30.0% 20.0% 10.0%

-2.3% 13.0% 1.5% 17.3%

$50

$40

0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%

$20

-23.8%

$10
Updated - 9-02-09

$0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 Est. 2010 Est. 1984 1985 1986 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

YEARLY 4Q GLOBAL S/C SALES ($B)

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

-43.1%

-21.9%

$30

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

4.5% -1.5%

-16.6%

1.1% 7.3%

18

VARIOUS S/C MARKET WATCHERs / ANALYSTs � 2009 CHIP SALES GROWTH FORECASTS
2009 Forecasted Growth
-20.0% -5.0%

Company 1 2
Broadpoint.AmTech Carnegie ASA

As of Date
December 2008

Revised 2009 CHANGE Forecasted From Previous Growth Forecast
-8.0% Reduced Reduced Reduced

As of Date
December 2008 April 2009 June 2009

STATUS

N/A

-13.0% -15.0%

-14.0% 3
4 Citigroup -20.0% -26.8% January 2009 -22.6%

Increased
Increased Increased Increased

Sept 2009
June 2009 July 2009 Aug 2009

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