China’s Impact on the Semiconductor Industry, High Tech, Page 8
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| Page content: Executive summary PricewaterhouseCoopers began the study series, growth. Most in China's semiconductor industry have China's impact on the semiconductor industry, in 2004 since recalibrated and now expect an 11% decrease in response to our clients' interest in the rapid growth in their 2009 semiconductor market relative to 2008. of the semiconductor industry in China. Specifically, clients wanted to find out whether China's production Even with the semiconductor downturn, electronic volumes would contribute to worldwide overcapacity and systems manufacturers in China continued to increase a subsequent downturn. Since then it has become clear their consumption of semiconductors at a rate three that market growth in China is far more significant to to five times the worldwide rate. As a result, China's the worldwide semiconductor industry than the nation's semiconductor consumption market grew by nearly 17% production volumes. in 2008 to reach US$104 billion, accounting for more than one third of the worldwide market. China's consumption The past year marks the first time in China's of semiconductors now exceeds the markets in Japan, semiconductor history that it noticeably experienced the North America, Europe and the rest of the world for impact of a worldwide industry downturn--an unexpected the fourth consecutive year. After the recovery, China's shock. China had been relatively untouched by the 2001 semiconductor consumption market will continue to grow downturn, as its semiconductor market grew by 18% somewhat faster than the worldwide market and should even as the worldwide market decreased a record 32%. gain at least a couple of percentage points of market Similarly, its markets grew by about 25% in both 1996 share over the next five years. and 1998 in contrast to worldwide market decreases of 9% and 8%. The 2008/09 semiconductor downturn demonstrates that as China's share of the worldwide semiconductor Probably as a result of this past immunity, most in market has increased so has its dependence on the China's semiconductor industry seemed to be slow to export market. During the past five years, since 2003, appreciate the significance of the 2008/09 semiconductor the consumption of semiconductors for export products downturn. Following a 3% drop in 2008, the worldwide has increased by almost US$50 billion, representing 68% semiconductor industry was expected to decline in the of the overall growth of China's semiconductor market. double digits in 2009. Still, China expected positive Meanwhile, the consumption of semiconductors for single-digit growth in 2009 followed by low double- domestic products has increased by US$23 billion. digit growth in 2010 and 2011. Such forecasts seem highly unlikely given that China represented 38% of the That may gradually change after the recovery. Suppose worldwide market in 2008 (up from less than 2% prior that over the next five years, the relative share of to 1996). Since then China has reported two quarters of domestic versus export consumption increases at the double-digit negative year-on-year market and industry expected GDP growth rates of China versus those of the rest of the world. In that case, China's share of 8 China's impact on the semiconductor industry: 2009 | ||||||
