China’s Impact on the Semiconductor Industry, High Tech, Page 4
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| Page content: About this report The 2009 update assesses the current status of the semiconductor industry in China and how it has changed since our previous update. As with our previous reports on this issue, we conducted a second-order analysis for the 2009 update. To accomplish this, first we reconciled data from different, incomplete, and often contradictory reports from various sources. These sources included industry associations as well as third-party research firms located in Asia and the West. We then analyzed the reconciled data with an eye towards filling in gaps and revealing information that was not apparent in the original source material. We also interviewed industry executives to obtain current views from various links of the value chain. This year we encountered greater differences between various sources in much of the basic data about the semiconductor market and industry in China than in any prior year. Much of this is probably a side effect of the economic crisis of 2008. The impact on China's semiconductor industry was sudden, unexpected, late in the year and significant. It disrupted many of the normal metrics and relationships used to evaluate market and industry performance at a time when year-end performance was being tabulated. In addition, it caused several local industry participants to withhold their reporting to industry associations and analysts of what they considered to be singularly disappointing results. As a result, determining a definitive direction and value for the 2008 China semiconductor market has proven challenging. Depending on the source, CCID Consulting or CSIA, (the two principal Chinese sources), China's 2008 semiconductor market measured in RMB grew by either 6.7% or 3.8% respectively. In US dollar terms, that's either 16.8% or 13.6% respectively. IC Insights reports the 2008 Chinese IC market measured in dollars grew by 4.7%; while Gartner Dataquest first reported China's semiconductor market measured in dollars grew by 0.8% and later revised that to report China's semiconductor market decreased by 2.9%. Meanwhile, iSupply reported that China's semiconductor market decreased by 5.9% in 2008. Between the various sources the reported size of China's 2008 semiconductor market in US dollar terms varied by as much as 35%, with CCID reporting the largest value and IC Insights the smallest. For our top level reporting of China's semiconductor consumption market and production industry, we have continued to utilize the values reported by CCID Consulting. Our reasons include (a) they provide the most comprehensive detail about China's market and industry available (b) their reports are the principal source of information for Chinese policymakers and (c) most industry executives we interviewed in China did indeed feel that semiconductor consumption increased in 2008. For some of our detailed analysis we have utilized alternate sources able to provide information not available elsewhere. Wherever possible, we tried to base each such analysis on a homogeneous data source. For example, for our (1) analysis of China compared with the worldwide semiconductor market by application and by device and (2) of semiconductor consumption versus purchases China versus worldwide by region: we rely on Gartner Dataquest (GDQ), as they provide database information for each of these markets that is reconciled on a worldwide basis. As a | ||||||
